Why I think Google is in trouble

I've been thinking a lot lately about how Twitter and Facebook are replacing Google search.

Not talking about Twitter's search.  Just talking about the use of Twitter & Facebook in general and how they replace your Google activity.

I think that Google makes a lot of money when you are looking to buy something.  You do a search in Google to find out what is recommended, where/how to travel, what things cost, etc.  Advertisers pay Google a lot of money to get on the page where you do your research.

But now I see my wife and friends asking their networks these questions.  My wife was looking for baby bottles.  2 years ago she would have inquired via Google about what to buy.  This time she asked her friends and got better results (though maybe not as fast).

We trust our friends, even above Consumer Reports.  That's the way it works in the real world and I think it will be like that online, too.

So I think that Twitter and Facebook are going to put a dent in Google's future revenue, if they haven't already.

Also, I think this especially true for local purchase decisions.  (In my mind) Google's future earnings were dependent on getting local businesses to buy Adwords.  I think that we'll hit up our friends for local purchase recommendations.

So.... I'm long Twitter, Facebook and "social network bots".

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